Like I have been saying for the past two days, the system coming in on Friday will be mostly all snow for the entire area. Another computer model is now agreeing with this forecast. I would not be suprised to see a Winter Weather Advisory or Travel Advisory issued for portions of the area tomorrow for the area.
GFS has been showing only one low pressure system Friday and it's over the northern portions of the United States. This would bring us light snow for the entire area. Why? If a low pressure was to develop from the south, that would bring warmer temperatures up into the area and bring a mix chance for us. Right now the low pressure doesn't look to evolve south of us per the GFS. GOOD NEWS!
The NAM has been showing the low pressure developing from the south and now it no longer shows that. It shows the low pressure to the north and completely elimiated the south one! The NAM does a very hard job forecasting long term. Look at the NAM below, almost identical to the GFS, right??
Based on both of these models we can now conclude that snow will fall for the area. It's time to talk totals!
The GFS I think is the most accurate of the three models right now. GFS has around an inch for the Louisville area and then from Madison and northeast localized 2" amounts.
NAM is showing around an inch for most of the area. I still think there is some error in the NAM, it has had a whole lot of problems this winter forecasting storm systems.
Euro is also showing around an inch for most of the area. This model is better for longer range forecasts. Hints my snow idea for this forecast earlier this week.
Bottom Line: Snowfall accumulations will be light but will cause problems because of the cold pavement and ground temperatures. A mix will be possible for the far southern portions of the area. Light icing could be possible for these areas shown in pink on the map below. A 1-2 inch band will set up over Southern Indiana and extreme Northern Kentucky. Timing on this system look to be around 5am Friday through 3pm Friday. The best chance for any banding or heavier snow showers would be late morning. Expect Winter Weather Advisories or Travel Advisories to be issued sometime tomorrow.
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