Questions are arising on the threat for severe weather Tuesday Night into Wednesday. I'm going to discuss my thoughts on this below.
SPC does have us in the low end risk of severe weather for the Tuesday Night-Wednesday Timeframe. I think they will adjust this into our area.
And here is why...
There are three things that come into play when severe weather is in play. Forcing, instability and shear. Without one of these ingredients, it's hard to get storms to be great. It's like cooking meal, if you do not have one of the ingredients, it will not turn out right.
First the forcing, strong forcing is in play with this system. Temperatures will be in the mid 60s during the day on Tuesday and the cold front will be bringing much colder air into the air. This shows us strong forcing.
Wind shear is the next thing to look at. Winds are bearish with this system. Models have been showing 90-100 knots just above our heads late Tuesday Night into Wednesday. If storms tap into this energy, LOOK OUT!
Instability is the final thing to look at, almost always in the Ohio Valley we deal with a low end instablity and high shear. Notice the instablity levels to our west around 500 units.
Then watch as the system beings to move into our area. Notice the values drop to 250 units and below.
I think the strong winds aloft will overcome the low instability. At this time models are back and forth on how much energy will be in play. I can tell you now with the system coming in during the overnight hours, the energy values will be low.
Bottom Line: I think the potential exists for a strong/severe line of thunderstorms to move through the area during the Tuesday evening-Wednesday morning timeframe. Damaging winds and very heavy rainfall will be the primary threats. Wind gusts with this system could easily push 70mph+. The line will begin to weaken as it pushes towards I-65. The questions is how much? It's still a bit early to tell. I think parts of the area are to likely end up with some significant wind gusts with this system. Make sure you have your weather radios on stand by and have signed up for WeatherPulse Text Alerts!
More coming tomorrow on this storm system.
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