The chance of rain will quickly come to an end this evening from west to east as temperatures continue to drop around the area. A quick flurry/sleet pelt is not out of the question as the activity comes to an end. Any water on the roads tonight will begin to freeze. Watch for areas of black ice in the morning. The winds are a bit breezy this evening and will help to begin drying out some of the roadways.
The only thing I'm watching over the next 7 days is the chance of a wintry mix/snow for areas in Central and Southern Kentucky on Tuesday. Notice the blue line over portions of Kentucky. If you are north of the line you will likely see mainly snow. Along and just south will be a mix/freezing rain situation. It will be a very minor situation. Right now, I'm not too concerned about this right now. Below is hours 30-33 on the NAM model showing the light precipitation moving into southcentral Kentucky.
We've been talking a little bit about when the next surge of colder air will be moving into the area. It still looks like early next week will be when the push finally makes it's way in. The polar vortex in Canada is charging and will begin to push SE early next week if the GFS pans out correctly.
Models do a horrible job long term forecasting because they begin to put errors within the runs and you basically have to use your judgement on past runs to decide whether the data is positive or not. Latest look at the AO, PNA and NAO are forecasts we will look at as well to forecast longer range forecasts.
AO is a bit warmer than when we last looked at it about a week ago. However, it is still negative.
NAO is warmer as well with more of a positive reading.
PNA was positive last time we looked, now its negative. So, what does that mean?
Models are not doing a great job on pinpointing when the colder air will move into the region. It's going to be hard on deciding how long the cold air last and how cold it will actually be. The prime areas of seeing the colder air at this time looks to be over the Great Lakes region and through the Northeast. Models will continue to waffle and forecasts will continue to change but as of right now, the first shot of cold air will move into the picure early next week.
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